Data released today by Statistics NZ, shows a jump of just under 100 in Raglan’s population since the last census in 2006. Up from 2637 to 2736, that works out to be a 4% increase. There has also been a big increase around Te Uku.
Rodger Gallagher, Retiring Chair of the Raglan Community Board said, “Once again, the ‘experts’ at Ngaruawahia have been proved wrong. Their Waikato District Long Term Plan is based on a scenario of virtually zero growth for Raglan. We told them they were wrong. As usual they didn’t listen. Their plan is built on quicksand and needs to be redone so Raglan gets the services it requires.”
Raglan Area Census data released by Statistics NZ:
| 2001 | 2006 | 2013 | % Change | Change 2006 to 2013 | ||
| 526500 Raglan | 2,667 | 2,637 | 2,736 | +4% | +99 | |
| 526602 Te Uku | 1,491 | 1,659 | 1,896 | +14% | +237 | |
| 526702 Te Akau | 900 | 957 | 933 | -3% | -24 |
Addendum
In a comment to this article, John Lawson asks if the growth for Raglan is actually in line with the WDC Long Term Plan which is based on the Future Proof forecast rather than well ahead of it, as I reported.
The Future Proof document does not have a forecast for just the town of Raglan. Instead it has a forecast for Raglan and Whaingaroa. For this combined area of Raglan Whaingaroa, the forecast population is 4340 in 2021. The starting population in 2006 is shown as 3220. This area does not equate with any of the standard areas reported by Statistics NZ. If we add the Statistics NZ areas of Te Uku and Raglan together then we have a population 4,632 – well ahead already of the Future Proof figure for 2021 of 4340.
The Statistics NZ area of ‘Raglan’ includes the area from Greenslade Rd to Ngarunui Beach Rd. It does not equate to the area for The Raglan Community Board (old or new) or to the area for the Raglan Ward (old or new).
If the increase for the core Statistics NZ area of Raglan has gone up 99, then the actual increase for the Raglan community will be much larger when the Whaanga Coast and Okete is included. These are included by Statistics NZ in what they call ‘Te Uku’.
I thought WDC’s planning was based on Future Proof, which predicted 3,800 by 2021. With a gain of 99 in 7 years and 8 more years to go, the population seems likely to be no more than 2,900 by 2021.
See addendum above. The issue is the need to look at the same areas.
I see they’re now predicting 4,000 by 2021, rather than their previous 3,800 prediction, an increase of 1,130 from 2013 and 6th largest growth in the Waikato. There’s no explanation, but maybe the effect of Rangitahi? The prediction is in Regional Council’s Land use, demographic and economic projections for the Waikato region, 2013 to 2063 – http://www.waikatoregion.govt.nz/PageFiles/41387/tr201603.pdf.
Rangitahi is part of the Te Uku statistical area, so it it is included in this set of figures: Te Uku 1710 1990 2550 2880 3533 4465 5341. So the 2021 prediction for Raglan and Te Uku is 6550. No doubt the forecasters have factored Rangitahi into this.