It seems likely that the Waikato District’s Northern Powerhouse of Tuakau and Onewhero will decide who Waikato’s next Mayor will be. With nearly one-quarter of the District’s voters in these areas, a high voter turnout and a strong local candidate, the Powerhouse could provide Mayoral challenger Bruce Cameron with over 2,000 votes as the foundation needed for his election. At the 2010 election Allan Sanson’s win saw 5621 people vote for him. It is likely that in 2013 the winner will need over 5,000 votes.
In the other large voter area of Huntly, current Mayor Allan Sanson’s home turf, the five way tussle including other local candidates will split the vote.
Rodger Gallagher developed an econometric model for Raglan 23 that predicts an overall win of over 5,000 votes across Waikato District for Bruce Cameron, followed by a strong battle for second place between incumbent Mayor Allan Sanson and Councillor Noel Smith. Provided Bruce Cameron secures over half the Awaroa Ki Tuakau and Onewhero-Te Akau vote and over 30% of people in these areas vote his win seems likely. The model is based on qualitative and quantitative research, 2013 voting returns and past voter turnout. The model has Bruce Cameron winning Tuakau and Onewhero; Allan Sanson winning Huntly, Ngaruawahia and Whangamarino; Noel Smith winning Newcastle and Raglan. In other wards its neck and neck. The model is based on a final predicted voter turnout of 33%. (Caution: This is a predictive statistical model based on available information and actual patterns of voting may be different and voter turnout may be different. There is no guarantee that this will be the actual outcome.)
Interesting to see what the final outcome actually is!